Why should we worry?

Since last December, when we started to put together our special issue of Hotel & Motel Management, The Advisor, I have heard day in and day out about the troubling economic times and how they might affect the hotel industry. At first, it seemed a little Chicken Little to me—people couldn't really stop traveling, could they? Would they? And since the answer in my head to both questions was "no," the corresponding next thought to enter my brain was "Well, then they'll need a place to stay." And that was about the extent of my worry as to the future of hotels.

My worries were ignited today, as I sat in on a webinar, "The Future of Leisure Travel: Outlook & Sales Strategies," sponsored by Hospitality Sales & Marketing Association International as part of the HSMAI University webinar series.

David Bratton, the founder of Destination Analysts, was the first speaker and he marked people's typical worries off on a laundry list—and brought up even more. A survey Destination Analysts conducted online in July, The State of the American Traveler, uncovered the thoughts and travel patterns of 1,000 American leisure travelers (with leisure traveler defined as having taken at least one leisure trip in the past 12 months). It turns out, people aren't traveling—as much—nor are they spending as much when they do travel.

When asked how many leisure trips of more than 100 miles they have taken in the last 12 months, the average was 5.1—a 7.3-percent drop from January's survey and a significant drop from January 2007's mark of 5.7 trips. When asked how gasoline prices have changed leisure travel, 47.2 percent said that they've actually taken fewer trips than they had wanted, and one in four said that they've reduced spending on other items—including hotels.

Another notable point: When asked whether they expected to travel more, less or the same amount for leisure in the coming 12 months as they did in the previous 12 months, the number of people who intend to travel less nearly tripled since January—from 10.5 percent to 28.8 percent.

If they actually get on the road (or in the air), Americans are becoming more thrifty. In every State of the American Traveler survey since July 2006, about 10 to 12 percent of respondents said they would cut back on their spending in travel for the next 12 months. This July, "we’ve had this shift now where 29 percent are saying 'I’m going to cut back on spending,'" Bratton said, noting that in all the surveys he's conducted, it's abnormal to see such a dramatic shift.

And while many people said tighter budgets would lead them to seek out bargains and discounts in travel, Bratton urged listeners to hold strong. "By no means I’m saying you have to discount to attract people, but certainly a large share of leisure travelers are going to be looking for discounts," he said. "The bottom line on this, I think that consumers … are concerned about the economy and about gas prices and the like. ... If I asked people to take the survey today, I’d be willing to bet you 100 bucks that things would be a little worse [than reported in July]."

So what do we do to make it better? Should I be worried—or am I now the one not necessarily worried that the sky is falling, but that the vital statistics of the industry are?